How do we understand what is happening in Iran today?Home2024May22
by Karin Silvina Hiebaum
The power of the Iranian president is relative, far less than that of any other leader of a Western republic, and is always subject to the decisions of religious leaders.
Honour guards carrying the coffin of Iran’s late President Ebrahim Raisi in Tabriz.
Honour guards carrying the coffin of Iran’s late President Ebrahim Raisi in TabrizAFP
The unknowns following the death of the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash are not easily understood from our perspective because politics mixes with religion and geo-strategy constantly.
There is no president, but it is not that relevant. Iran is a republic, but not a republic in the usual sense because its theocratic character gives power to the ayatollah that goes beyond the strictly religious. The president’s power is relative, much less than that of any president of a Western republic, and is always subject to the decisions of the religious leaders.
The president is the voice of the Guardian Council. The late Raisi, elected in 2021 in a democratic process with such a low turnout as to be unrepresentative, had made it to the electoral line-up after a very tough sifting of candidates where nearly six hundred were left on the road to the presidency and only the three accepted by the Guardian Council faced off at the polls. They were chosen from among those already elected. In a forthcoming election the same thing will happen.
Iran’s problem is that any change can be for the worse.
From theocracy to military dictatorship. Iran’s problem is that any change can be for the worse. Indeed, the current instability is unlikely to bring about a transformation to democracy, but would be an opportunity for the Revolutionary Forces to take political control and establish a military dictatorship.
Not everyone is doing so badly. Although, minutes after the news of Raisi’s death broke, social media was filled with congratulatory hashtags and videos of fireworks from rooftops, there were also many Iranians out in the streets praying. We cannot think of Iran as an impoverished communist dictatorship, because although it is religiously dictatorial, it has no problem with its citizens prospering economically. And there is a part of the population that prefers to stay as it is, earning all it earns. The country is full of rich people. And poor.
Military strength is at a minimum. Although the collective imagination continues to fear Iran as a military power and despite the many efforts to convince the outside world of its arms muscle and the cyclical rumours about Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium for military use, the truth is that años of wars and economic sanctions have left its equipment obsolete. Indeed, it came as little surprise when the helicopter in which the president was travelling crashed due to a lack of properly maintained parts.
Safety failures. It is highly unlikely that in a state with as little transparency as Iran’s, the specific reasons why the helicopter in which Raisi was travelling crashed in the mountains will ever be known. But if it had been a foreign attack or sabotage, whether internal or external (the list of enemies that the regime has is not small), they will never recognise their weakness.
Armed groups and terrorists are orphaned. There has been much speculation these days about the possibility that the death of the Iranian president could destabilise a region that is experiencing constant outbreaks of violence. What is certain is that if such destabilisation occurs, it will be particularly damaging to groups that the Iranian regime has traditionally provided cover for, such as Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. In this sense, the balance may tip in favour of these groups involved in the conflicts that are threatening the region.
The battle to succeed Ayatollah Khamanei. The life of the supreme leader is a mystery and rumours about his state of health are not uncommon, even if they are plausible for an 85-año-old man. No one knows for sure whether he is the one making the decisions or whether he is leaving it to his innermost chamber. The now deceased president was one of the names in the succession pool. Now there will be internal movements to take new positions. Another front of instability that could further complicate the country’s future.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, were killed on Sunday 19 May when the helicopter in which they were travelling with six other officials and crew members crashed. The wreckage of the helicopter was found in the early hours of Monday 20 May.
For more information, we are joined on More Media by Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Governance.
Trita, welcome to More Media. Can you respond to what has happened in Iran? Tell us about the death of the president and the foreign minister and what it means.
TRITA PARSI: This is, of course, an important event in Iran. Both the president and the foreign ministers and several others have died. And it comes at a time when Iranians already have an extremely low turnout for elections, and now they are going to have to hold elections in the next 50 days. As you pointed out, the only reason Raisi was elected in the first place was because the majority of the population boycotted the elections and refused to participate due to the fact that the conservatives had narrowed the political spectrum in Iran and refused to allow other candidates who were not conservative to even run in the first place. Now the regime is going to have to try to whip up and mobilise voters and enthusiasm for an election in 50 days’ time. And it has a decision to make: is it really going to allow other candidates to run, or is it going to continue down the path it has set itself, in which these elections become increasingly insignificant in terms of real democratic value?
And this comes at a time when the regime is facing other potential crises, including the succession that will take place in a couple of años when the current supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, passes away. And again, Raisi was considered as a potential candidate for that position, but obviously not any more.
AMY GOODMAN: If you can talk about Raisi’s background, who was he, how close was he to the supreme leader and also to the foreign minister?
TRITA PARSI: So, Raisi was not particularly well known until a couple of años ago, because he had spent most of his time in the judiciary. He is a cleric. He’s related by marriage to the supreme leader and, frankly, he hasn’t been a particularly impactful or influential president. At the end of the day, he seems to have been selected precisely because he was amenable to the supreme leader, because he would not do what previous presidents had done, which was to challenge the supreme leader and the hardline establishment. And Raisi clearly has not done that.
But if you look at what are the main policies that he has pushed, it’s really hard to identify them. Imagine if this had happened to Hassan Rouhani, the previous president, during the height of the nuclear negotiations, for example. It would have been a major setback for those negotiations, precisely because Rouhani was such a strong driving force for resolving the nuclear issue diplomatically. There is no equivalent to that, as Raisi is a key driving force in that policy or any major policy where his absence will be particularly felt. In any case, most of the Islamic Republic’s current policies are likely to continue unabated even with him absent from the scene.
AMY GOODMAN: We don’t know the exact cause of the crash, although there’s certainly been talk about the weather. I wanted to read this from AP, Trita: «Iran flies a variety of helicopters in the country, but international sanctions make it difficult to obtain parts for them. Its military air fleet also largely dates back to before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. IRNA published images it described as Raisi taking off in what looked like a Bell helicopter, with a blue and white paint scheme previously seen in published photographs. And, you know, you have The Washington Post saying, «Iran, hampered by sanctions from obtaining parts and maintenance materials for government aircraft, has suffered several high-profile helicopter crashes in recent años.» Talk about this.
TRITA PARSI: Yes. So, few countries have as many aircraft and helicopter accidents as Iran, which, to a large extent, is due to the fact that US sanctions have prevented them from being able to service those aircraft and obtain spare parts for them. In fact, as part of the nuclear deal, the Iranians were going to buy a large number of Boeing planes, in addition to getting Boeing to service the planes Iran already had, their fleet coming mainly from the 1960s and 1970s. His technicians went to Iran to investigate the planes, and they came to the conclusion that they would not service those planes, because they were in such bad shape that Boeing did not want to take responsibility for having repaired them, because they would probably crash even with that service. and Boeing would be liable at that point. So it refused to service those planes. That gives you.
TRITA PARSI: Yes, so few countries have as many aircraft and helicopter accidents as Iran, which is largely due to the fact that US sanctions have prevented them from being able to service those aircraft and get spare parts for them. In fact, as part of the nuclear deal, the Iranians were going to buy a large number of Boeing planes, in addition to getting Boeing to service the planes Iran already had, their fleet coming mainly from the 1960s and 1970s. His technicians went to Iran to investigate the planes, and they came to the conclusion that they would not service those planes, because they were in such bad shape that Boeing did not want to take responsibility for having repaired them, because they would probably crash even with that service. and Boeing would be liable at that point. So it refused to service those planes. That tells you something about the poor state of the Iranian fleet. And this is, of course, overwhelmingly as a result of the sanctions.
AMY GOODMAN: Former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif blamed the U.S. for the embargo weakening its fleet, saying, «These will be registered on the list of U.S. crimes against the Iranian people,» Trita said.
TRITA PARSI: So, this is obviously a line that many in the government will take in Iran and point to these sanctions. But I think there’s also another message that comes with this, which is that they’re really pointing out that this was an accident. And this is an effort for them to put to rest any speculation that maybe there was some foul play, either by internal or external players. At this point, for example, they will be adamant in denying that this had anything to do with it, despite the fact that, under normal circumstances, they would be quick to blame the Israelis. It would simply be too embarrassing to admit or even entertain the idea that the Israelis have the ability to be able to essentially kill the Iranian president and the Iranian foreign minister. Well, I want to be very clear here: there is no evidence that Israel was involved. I’m just raising this as a point as to why they are so active in trying to blame this on an accident. It’s because they want to put a stop to such rumours, not only out of embarrassment, but also because they don’t want to see an intensification of infighting within the regime, conscious of the fact that Raisi was a contender for the next supreme leader.
AMY GOODMAN: Of course, Raisi was in charge during the crackdown on the protests that led to the deaths of many and the imprisonment of many others after the death of Mahsa Amini. And then, this weekend, we learned that the BBC reported that jailed Iranian Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi says she faces a retrial after accusing security forces of sexually assaulting women. She said in her statement that she was «dragged to the table of unjust and absurd courts» again because of her «protest and revelation of sexual assault by the men of the religious regime against women». What will happen, now that Raisi and the foreign minister are dead, when it comes to, you think, protesting, when it comes to what is happening with Mohammadi herself being dragged to court again?
TRITA PARSI: I don’t think this is going to be an event that will provoke further protests. At the end of the day, I think the large number of people in Iran who are very, very unhappy with this regime recognise that Raisi was not such an important figure. It will be a completely different situation when the supreme leader passes away, for example. I think you will see the regime orchestrate a tremendous show of force, extra security to minimise any such risk, but this is not likely to become a moment of protest.
And part of the reason for that is that the Mahsa Amini protests, unfortunately, from the protesters’ point of view, did not bring about the kind of changes that they wanted. It certainly changed Iranian society’s perspective on the hijab, but not, you know, the call for the collapse of the regime as a whole. And it has led to a situation where the population, which has previously and still has lost faith in change through the ballot box, has now also lost faith in change through revolution. So I don’t think it’s very likely to lead to that kind of instability in the country or to protests.
AMY GOODMAN: And what does this mean for the Middle East? We have Hamas and Hezbollah expressing condolences. Yet you’ve done it next week. Wasn’t the United States and Iran in Amman meeting through a third party with Iran, in general, over the last few meses, saying that they were cracking down on attacks on the United States?
TRITA PARSI: I don’t see this having any impact on Iran’s relations with Hezbollah or Hamas, but I think this last point you raised is important. Over the course of the last two weeks, we have seen the US and Iran quietly negotiating behind the scenes in order to moderate their own tensions and end attacks by Iraqi and Syrian militias that have aligned themselves with Iran against US troops. The Iranians pressured them to stop these attacks, because the Iranians do not want to see a wider war in the region. If this leads to some kind of debilitating crisis, not an existential crisis for the regime, but a crisis where they will stall a little bit in the foreseeable future, it may lead to a situation where their control over some of these militias will be further weakened, and that some of them, who, many of them, are more aggressive than Iran, more eager to take on the United States, will actually resume their attacks against the United States. Obviously, that would be a very bad situation for the United States and the Biden administration, particularly given the upcoming elections.
AMY GOODMAN: Trita Parsi, we want to thank you for being with us, Iranian-American, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Governance.
When we come back, the International Criminal Court is seeking arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli defence minister.
TRITA PARSI: Thank you very much.
AMY GOODMAN: And three Hamas leaders: Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh and Mohammed Deif. We’ll get the latest. Thirty seconds.
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